Research press release





今回、Gopal Muraliたちは、1950年から2099年までの極端な高温現象の頻度、継続期間と強度の予測データを用いて、さまざまな温室効果ガス排出シナリオの下での陸生脊椎動物(約3万3600種)の極端な高温現象への曝露をマッピングした。Muraliたちは、高排出シナリオ(4.4℃の気温上昇)の下では、これらの陸生脊椎動物種の41%が、全世界に分布する生息地の少なくとも半分で、3つの指標(頻度、継続期間、強度)のすべてで極端な高温現象を経験し、この比率が、中~高排出シナリオ(3.6℃の気温上昇)では28.8%、低排出シナリオ(1.8℃の気温上昇)では6.1%になると予測している。極端な高温現象にさらされるリスクが最も高いのが両生類と爬虫類で、高排出シナリオの下で極端な高温現象を経験すると予測されるのは両生類の55.5%、爬虫類の51.0%であるのに対し、鳥類は25.8%、哺乳類は31.1%となった。


More than 40% of all land vertebrates may be subjected to extreme heat events by 2099 under current maximum estimates of future global temperatures, according to a study published in Nature. Prolonged exposure to high temperatures could be dangerous for the future of many species across the globe.

Extreme thermal events, a period in which the temperature greatly exceeds a historical threshold, have increased in frequency compared to historical records, exacerbated by climate change caused by human activity. Recurring periods of extreme heat affect wildlife and are associated with increased psychological stress, reduced reproductive output and decreased population sizes, meaning that the continuation of these temperature spikes would pose a substantial threat to future biodiversity. Previous work to evaluate the consequences of climate change on wildlife has lacked assessments of the short-term dynamics of daily heat stress or the damage that is caused by the variability of temperatures rather than the heat itself.

Gopal Murali and colleagues map the exposure of around 33,600 land vertebrates to extreme thermal events under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using the projected frequency, duration and intensity of extreme thermal events between 1950 and 2099. The authors predict that 41% of species will experience extreme thermal events in all three metrics across at least half of their land distribution under a high emissions scenario (in which warming is predicted to reach 4.4 °C). This percentage is expected to decrease to 28.8% for intermediate–high scenarios (warming to reach 3.6 °C) and 6.1% for low emission scenarios (warming limited to 1.8 °C). Amphibians and reptiles are likely to be at greatest risk, with 55.5% of amphibians and 51.0% of reptiles expected to experience extreme heat events under high emissions scenarios, as compared with 25.8% of birds and 31.1% of mammals.

Murali and colleagues assert that curbing greenhouse gas emissions would substantially reduce the effect of extreme heat on biodiversity.

doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-05606-z

「Nature 関連誌注目のハイライト」は、ネイチャー広報部門が報道関係者向けに作成したリリースを翻訳したものです。より正確かつ詳細な情報が必要な場合には、必ず原著論文をご覧ください。

メールマガジンリストの「Nature 関連誌今週のハイライト」にチェックをいれていただきますと、毎週最新のNature 関連誌のハイライトを皆様にお届けいたします。