Research Abstract


Combined effects of prevention and quarantine on a breakout in SIR model

2011年6月14日 Scientific Reports 1 : 10 doi: 10.1038/srep00010


加藤文規1,泰中啓一1,2,曾根彰吾1,守田 智1,飯田弘之2 & 吉村 仁1,3,4

  1. 静岡大学工学部 システム工学科
  2. 北陸先端科学技術大学院大学 情報科学研究科
  3. 千葉大学海洋バイオシステム研究センター
  4. ニューヨーク州立大学(米国)
Recent breakouts of several epidemics, such as flu pandemics, are serious threats to human health. The measures of protection against these epidemics are urgent issues in epidemiological studies. Prevention and quarantine are two major approaches against disease spreads. We here investigate the combined effects of these two measures of protection using the SIR model. We use site percolation for prevention and bond percolation for quarantine applying on a lattice model. We find a strong synergistic effect of prevention and quarantine under local interactions. A slight increase in protection measures is extremely effective in the initial disease spreads. Combination of the two measures is more effective than a single protection measure. Our results suggest that the protection policy against epidemics should account for both prevention and quarantine measures simultaneously.