Research press release


Nature Communications

Climate change: Anthropogenic climate change influenced hurricane rainfall in 2020

人為起源の気候変動のために、2020年の大西洋のハリケーン期における3時間降水量が、産業革命前と比べて最大10%増加したことを示唆する論文が、Nature Communications に掲載される。


今回、Kevin Reedたちは、人為起源の気候変動が海面水温に及ぼす影響をモデル化し、2020年に大西洋全域の海面水温が0.4~0.9℃上昇したという見解を示している。そして、Reedたちは、将来予測のためのモデルを使って過去の事例を予測する再予報(ハインドキャスト)という手法を用いて、2020年の北大西洋のハリケーン期全体における極値降水量に対する人為起源の海面水温上昇の寄与度を明らかにした。その結果、産業革命以前(1850年以前)と比較して、熱帯低気圧級の暴風による3時間降水量の極値と3日間累積降水量の極値が、それぞれ10%と5%増加したことが分かった。また、ハリケーン級の暴風の場合には、人為起源の影響はそれぞれ11%と8%だった。


Human-induced climate change increased hourly rainfall amounts during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season by up to 10% compared to pre-industrial levels, suggests a paper published in Nature Communications.

The 2020 hurricane season was one of the most active on record with 30 named storms. Human activities continue to increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and previous research has shown an increase of more than 1°C in the global average sea surface temperature in 2020 compared to pre-industrial levels. It has been suggested that the increase in surface temperature may have impacted storm intensity and occurrence, however, unravelling the various competing climate effects on storm parameters remains challenging.

Kevin Reed and colleagues modelled the impact of human-induced climate change on sea surface temperatures and suggest that during 2020 surface temperatures rose by 0.4–0.9°C across the Atlantic. They then used a hindcasting (the opposite of forecasting) technique to show how much of the extreme rainfall across the whole of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season could be attributed to human-induced sea surface temperature increases. They found that both extreme 3-hourly storm rainfall rates (amount of rainfall in 3 hours) and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts (amount of rainfall over 3 days) for tropical strength storms were increased by 10% and 5%, respectively, compared to pre-industrial (1850) conditions. The authors also indicate that for hurricane-strength storms the human-induced effect was 11% and 8%, respectively.

The authors suggest their findings demonstrate an anthropogenic signal in rainfall from hurricanes that will have direct consequences for coastal communities.

doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29379-1

「Nature 関連誌注目のハイライト」は、ネイチャー広報部門が報道関係者向けに作成したリリースを翻訳したものです。より正確かつ詳細な情報が必要な場合には、必ず原著論文をご覧ください。

メールマガジンリストの「Nature 関連誌今週のハイライト」にチェックをいれていただきますと、毎週最新のNature 関連誌のハイライトを皆様にお届けいたします。