Research press release


Nature Communications

Climate science: Immediate fossil fuel infrastructure phase-out may keep warming below 1.5°C


今回、Christopher Smithたちの研究グループは、さまざまなシナリオの下で単一の気候モデルを用い、2018年末から二酸化炭素の排出量の削減がほぼ線形速度で進み、40年後にほぼゼロになる場合に、全球的気温上昇に何が起こるのかを調べた。これらのシナリオでは、化石燃料を用いる発電所や自動車、航空機、船舶、産業基盤が耐用年数に達すると、炭素排出のない代替手段に置き換えることとされた。


Immediately starting to phase out fossil fuel infrastructure as it reaches the end of its expected lifetime may result in a 64% chance that global mean temperature rise will remain below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. The research suggests that delaying mitigation until 2030 reduces the likelihood that 1.5°C would be attainable, even if the rate of retirement was accelerated. The modelling study is published in Nature Communications.

Christopher Smith and colleagues used a climate model under different scenarios to determine what would happen to global temperature rise if CO2 emissions were phased out from the end of 2018 at a close to linear rate, becoming near-zero after 40 years. In these scenarios, fossil fuel power plants, cars, aircraft, ships, and industrial infrastructure would be replaced with zero-carbon alternatives at the end of their life.

Based on their results, the authors suggest that starting to phase out existing CO2-emitting infrastructure immediately means there is a 64% probability warming could be kept below 1.5°C, whereas delaying action until 2030 reduces this probability to below 50%. However, their results rely on no large-scale climate tipping points being breached in the coming decades, for example from extensive melting of permafrost.

doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w

「Nature 関連誌注目のハイライト」は、ネイチャー広報部門が報道関係者向けに作成したリリースを翻訳したものです。より正確かつ詳細な情報が必要な場合には、必ず原著論文をご覧ください。

メールマガジンリストの「Nature 関連誌今週のハイライト」にチェックをいれていただきますと、毎週最新のNature 関連誌のハイライトを皆様にお届けいたします。