Research press release


Nature Communications

Nature Communications: Negative outlook for global warming



今回、Thomas Gasserたちは、最先端の炭素-気候結合モデルを使って、気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)のRCP2.6温暖化シナリオにおいて摂氏2度未満の目標を達成するために必要な従来の緩和策(化石燃料の消費量削減)と負の排出のトレードオフを定量化した。RCP2.6シナリオは、二酸化炭素排出量が2010年から2020年の間にピークに達することを前提とする楽観的なシナリオで、他のシナリオと比べて必要とされる緩和策と負の排出のレベルが低い。Gasserたちは、非常に積極的な緩和シナリオにおいても、負の排出による年間0.5~3ギガトンの炭素の抽出と50~250ギガトンの炭素貯蔵能力が必要となり、負の排出が従来の緩和策を伴わない場合には、摂氏2度未満という目標の達成可能性は低いと結論づけている。

The use of negative emissions technologies, such as those that can remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, to limit global warming to less than 2°C in the coming century is likely unfeasible according to a study published in Nature Communications this week. The findings show that, in all but the most optimistic conventional climate mitigation scenarios, the negative emissions requirements are beyond the capabilities of current technologies.

Negative emissions technologies include the capture of human-produced carbon dioxide at the site of production, direct removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and engineered enhancement of natural carbon sinks, and are increasingly invoked as a requirement to limit global warming to less than 2°C above preindustrial levels and to avoid dangerous climate change. However, these technologies are not yet developed and the level of negative emissions necessary to stay below the 2°C limit remains unclear.

Thomas Gasser and colleagues use state-of-the-art carbon-climate models to quantify the trade-off between conventional mitigation strategies (consumption of fewer fossil fuels) and negative emissions required to reach the 2°C target under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP2.6 warming scenario. This is an optimistic scenario that assumes emissions will peak between 2010 and 2020, requiring lower levels of mitigation and negative emissions than other possible scenarios. The authors conclude that even under very aggressive mitigation scenarios, negative emissions of 0.5-3 Giga-tonnes of carbon per year and a storage capacity of 50-250 Giga-tonnes of carbon are required, and that negative emissions alone, in the absence of conventional mitigation, are unlikely to achieve the 2°C goal.

doi: 10.1038/ncomms8958

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