Research press release


Nature Climate Change

Heavier summer rain in the UK


Elizabeth Kendonたちは、気象予報で一般的に使われているモデルを用い、英国南部での1時間ごとの降水量の変化を調査した。この高解像度モデル(格子間隔1.5 km)では、降水事象および降水強度を1時間の時間スケールで予測できる。


Short duration rain events are predicted to intensify during the summer months in the southern United Kingdom, reports a Letter published online in Nature Climate Change this week. This predicted increase means more events would exceed the Met Office and Environment Agency Flood Forecasting Centre guidance threshold for serious flash flooding.

Elizabeth Kendon and colleagues used a model typically employed for weather forecasting to investigate hourly rainfall changes in the southern UK. The model’s high resolution - 1.5 km grid spacing - allows projections of rainfall events and intensities on an hourly timescale.

The model confirmed projections from a coarser resolution model and previous findings of winter rainfall intensification. However, the coarser model was unable to project changes in summer downpours due to warming, which the higher resolution model was able to predict using accurate representation of local storm dynamics.

doi: 10.1038/nclimate2258


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