Research press release


Nature Climate Change

Climate change: Ozone-depleting substances may have caused half of Arctic warming during 1955 - 2005



今回、Lorenzo Polvaniたちの研究チームは、気候モデルを用いて、気候温暖化に対するODSの影響の定量化を試みた。その際にPolvaniたちは、1955~2005年に測定されたODSの自然排出量と人為的排出量に基づいた世界とODSとそのオゾンに対する影響がなくなった世界のシミュレーションを行った。この2つの世界の差が、ODSが気候系に及ぼす正味の影響を示している。Polvaniたちは、この期間中の北極温暖化と海氷減少の約半分と全球平均の温暖化の約3分の1がODSによって引き起こされたと推定している。


Ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) may be responsible for nearly half of Arctic warming from 1955 - 2005, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change. These findings highlight an unrecognized source of twentieth-century Arctic climate change.

ODSs - halogen compounds that destroy the protective layer of ozone in the upper atmosphere - were used as propellants, refrigerants and solvents during the twentieth century. Since the 1987 Montreal Protocol, ODS emissions have been curbed, and the ozone layer is now in slow recovery. However, ODSs are potent greenhouse gases and have long atmospheric lifetimes, so they can add substantially to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

Lorenzo Polvani and colleagues use a climate model to estimate what amount of climate warming can be attributed to these substances. The authors simulated two worlds: one with natural and human emissions as measured during 1955 - 2005, and another with ODSs and their ozone impacts removed. The difference reveals the net impact of ODSs on the climate system. The authors estimate that ODSs may have caused about half of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, as well as nearly one third of globally averaged warming, during that time period.

These results offer a new perspective on the climate impacts of ODSs, and suggest that their continued phase-out via the Montreal Protocol will help mitigate Arctic warming and sea ice melt in the future.

doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0677-4

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