Research press release


Nature Geoscience

Typhoon intensity is rising fastest for landfalling storms



Wei MeiとShang-Ping Xieは手法の違いを補正することでデータの矛盾を解消し、過去38年間で強力な台風へと大きく変化したことを発見した。クラスター分析を用いて、Meiたちは上陸した台風は海上にとどまるものよりも力を増すことを発見した。また、Meiたちは、この変化は一定の速度での長期に及ぶ強力化ではなく、より速い強力化に起因していると考えている。

Landfalling typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified over the past decades as a result of a warming ocean surface near the coasts, reports a study published online this week in Nature Geoscience. With further sea surface warming projected as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations increase, the findings suggest that mainland China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan are likely to experience more damaging typhoons in the future.

Regional changes in typhoon intensity have been difficult to identify because of inconsistencies in the available data. In particular, contradictory trends in the annual number of storms were identified for the two strongest categories of typhoons.

Wei Mei and Shang-Ping Xie reconciled the data by correcting for differences in methodology, discovering a substantial shift towards more intense typhoons over the past 38 years. Using a cluster analysis, they found that landfalling typhoons show much stronger intensification than those that stay over the ocean. They attribute these changes to faster intensification, as opposed to a longer period of intensification at the same rate.

doi: 10.1038/ngeo2792


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