Research press release


Nature Energy

Nature Energy Focus issue: How extreme weather events disrupt energy systems

Nature Energy では、今週掲載される6報のCommentと1報の論文で、極端な気象事象がエネルギーシステムに悪影響を及ぼす可能性を検討する。この特集では、エネルギー科学のさまざまな分野において、気候変動の下での極端な気象の影響を探っている。


気候変動によって生じる極端な気象事象と気象変動は、エネルギー需要とエネルギー供給システムの復元力のどちらにも影響を及ぼす可能性がある。しかし、将来の極端な気象事象の激しさ、時期、位置を予測できないため、エネルギーシステムに対する極端な気象事象の具体的な潜在的影響を定量化するのは難しい。A T D Pereraたちは、気候モデルから得られる平均的な気温変化と極端な気温変化を分けてエネルギー需要をモデル化する方法について報告している。

極端な気象事象の影響は、こうした高い気候リスクに対する資本注入や保険が拒否される可能性があるため、財政の群衆行動によって悪化し、物理的なエネルギー不足につながると思われる。同時に、再生可能エネルギーへの投資が、削減される化石燃料への投資に取って代わるには超指数関数的な成長が必要であるが、そのようには成長しない可能性がある。A JaffeのCommentでは、こうした現象のリスクが調べられ、それを回避する方法が示唆されている。


The potential for extreme weather events to disrupt energy systems is examined in six Comment pieces and a research paper published this week in Nature Energy . The Focus issue explores how the impact of extremes under climate change can be studied in different disciplines of energy science.

Climate change is a long-term phenomenon and it has been mostly modelled and studied as such. However, human beings tend to experience the acute effects of climate change via extreme weather events. Moreover, many components of our energy system - from energy finance to legal systems - may be unprepared for extremes and in certain cases may even exacerbate their impacts.

Extreme weather events and weather variations, induced by climate change, can affect both energy demand and the resilience of energy supply systems. However, the specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of the intensity, timing and location of future extreme weather events. In a research paper, A. T. D. Perera and colleagues present a method to model energy demand separately for average and extreme temperature changes from climate models.

The effect of extremes is exacerbated by herd-behavior in finance by potentially denying capital infusions and insurance to energy firms vulnerable to these high climate risks, possibly leading to physical energy shortages. At the same time, renewable power may not be experiencing the kind of super-exponential growth that is needed to replace curtailed investment in fossil fuels. In her Comment, Amy Jaffe explores the risks of these phenomena and provides suggestions for how to avoid it.

An accompanying Editorial states that, “Accounting for and formalizing the impact of extremes is significant not just because it is the extremes that will break us but because the extremes affect the most vulnerable first and most devastatingly.” This collection, which also includes five further Comments, examines what remains unknown regarding extreme events and our energy systems, and what can be done about it.

doi: 10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0


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