Research press release


Nature Communications

Climate change: Protecting against flood damage in Europe

ヨーロッパの海岸線の約3分の1で海岸堤防のかさ上げが行われれば、ヨーロッパで予想されている海面上昇による高潮浸水被害額の少なくとも83%を回避できる可能性があることを示唆する論文が、Nature Communications に掲載される。


今回、Michalis Vousdoukasたちの研究チームは、ヨーロッパの沿岸地域を海面上昇から保護するための施設の増強について費用便益評価を行った。Vousdoukasたちは、モデル化フレームワークを用いて、高排出シナリオ(RCP 8.5)と中排出シナリオ(RCP 4.5)の下での海面上昇、波浪、高潮と潮汐の予測に基づいた現在と将来の極端海面水位(ESL)を推定した。これによって、浸水する土地の面積が決まり、高潮・浸水損害額への換算をしたうえで、海岸堤防のかさ上げの費用便益分析に利用された。


At least 83% of projected flood damage in Europe as a result of rising sea levels could be avoided by elevating dykes along approximately a third of Europe’s coastline, suggests a study in Nature Communications.

More than 200 million people live within 50km of the European coast, which stretches from the North-East Atlantic and the Baltic to the Mediterranean and Black Sea. With sea levels predicted to rise by as much as one metre along the European coastline by the end of the century, protecting coastal communities poses a serious challenge.

Michalis Vousdoukas and colleagues evaluated the costs and benefits of applying additional protection along the European coastline to protect against rising sea levels. The authors used a modelling framework to estimate present and future extreme sea levels based on projections of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges and tides under a high (RCP 8.5) and moderate (RCP 4.5) emissions scenario. From this, they were able to determine the land areas flooded and translate this into flood losses, which were then used in a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes.

The authors found that the cost-to-benefit ratio of increased protection varied across Europe with costs outweighing the benefits along 68-76% of the European coastline. However, in areas where population density was greater than 500 people per km2 the benefits tended to outweigh the costs. At a country level, Belgium had the highest percentage of coastline (85-95%) where benefits exceeded costs. This was followed by France (58-66%) and Italy (53-59%).

doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3

「Nature 関連誌注目のハイライト」は、ネイチャー広報部門が報道関係者向けに作成したリリースを翻訳したものです。より正確かつ詳細な情報が必要な場合には、必ず原著論文をご覧ください。

メールマガジンリストの「Nature 関連誌今週のハイライト」にチェックをいれていただきますと、毎週最新のNature 関連誌のハイライトを皆様にお届けいたします。