Research press release


Nature Energy

Tornado of potential for wind energy in China



Valerie KarplusとXiliang Zhangたちは今回、時間単位の電力配分モデルを考案して、風力発電を電力供給網に組み込める可能性を評価している。このモデルは、操業と分配の制約を仮定して、電力系統の最適生産量を決定するものである。その結果、2030年までに風力は、予測される中国の一次エネルギー(電力だけでなく、あらゆる形態のエネルギー)の11.9%を生み出すことができる可能性があり、一定のエネルギーを生み出すのではなく、風力エネルギーの変動性をある程度相殺できるように、石炭によるエネルギー生産の柔軟性を少し改善するだけで、この値を14%に押し上げることができる可能性があることが分かった。

同時掲載のNews & Views記事でJiahai Yuanは、「風力は、中国における最も有望な再生可能エネルギーである」と結論付けている。

China could generate up to 26% of its projected 2030 electricity demand with wind power alone, reports a paper published online this week in Nature Energy. The modelling study suggests that this represents only 10% of the country’s total wind resource, and that the ability to adjust the rate of China’s coal-based energy production could help the country reach its target of generating 20% of its primary energy (including energy other than electricity) from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

China - the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter - has pledged to curb its emissions by shifting its reliance on coal to the production of renewable energy, and to wind in particular. Although China now has the largest installed wind capacity of any country, integrating wind energy into the electricity grid is challenging due to the mismatch between the variability of wind resources and the inflexibility of coal-heavy energy production.

Valerie Karplus, Xiliang Zhang and colleagues devise an hourly dispatch model - which determines the optimal output of the power system, given operational and distribution constraints - to assess the potential for integrating wind generation into the grid. They find that wind could generate up to 11.9% of China’s projected primary energy (all forms of energy, not just electricity) by 2030, and that even limited improvements in the flexibility of production from coal - so that it does not produce a constant output and accounts for the variability in the energy produced by wind - could further push this to 14%.

In an accompanying News & Views article, Jiahai Yuan concludes that wind power “represents the most promising renewable energy source in China."

doi: 10.1038/nenergy.2016.86


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