Research press release


Nature Energy

Balancing climate change mitigation and clean energy access



Shonali Pachauriたちは、南アジアにおける気候変動緩和政策とクリーンエネルギーの利用政策の相互作用を調べ、さまざまな目標が互いにどのように影響を及ぼすのかを明らかにしている。Pachauriたちは、さまざまな利用政策に対して、複数のグループのエネルギー需要を収入と調理用燃料を選択肢としてモデル化し、気候政策が燃料費に及ぼす影響を組み込んだ。その結果、最も厳しい気候変動緩和政策では、2300年までにクリーン燃料のコストが38%増加し、南アジアの4億3300万人もの人々がクリーンエネルギーを利用できないまま取り残される可能性があることが分かった。これは、補助金がどのように配分されるかにもよるが、クリーンエネルギーの普遍的利用を実現する政策にかかるコストが最大で44%増える可能性を意味している。Pachauriたちは、慎重な政策設計によって、気候緩和に伴って増える利用コストを部分的に相殺できる可能性があると示唆している。

Pursuing stringent climate goals could mean that a significant number of people in South Asia will remain dependent on traditional cook stoves, despite the stoves’ negative health impacts, reports a paper published online this week in Nature Energy. This analysis of the trade-offs between policies for climate change mitigation and access to clean cooking fuels highlights the need to carefully design complementary policies that account for development goals.

In many parts of the world, people still rely on burning solid fuels like wood and charcoal for cooking and heating. South Asia has the greatest number of solid-fuel users, where household air pollution from the incomplete combustion of these fuels leads to 1.7 million premature deaths annually. Global programmes have been created to achieve universal access to modern energy services (such as electricity and natural gas) by 2030, with subsidies and other interventions aimed at reducing the costs of petroleum-based fuels (such as kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas).

Shonali Pachauri and colleagues explored the interaction between climate mitigation policies and clean energy access policies in South Asia, to show how the different goals affect each other. They modelled the energy needs of a number of groups based on income and fuel-stove options for a range of access policies, incorporating the effect that climate policy has on fuel cost. They found that the most stringent climate mitigation policy could increase the cost of clean fuel by as much as 38% and may leave as many as 433 million South Asians (21% of the population) unable to afford clean energy by 2030, meaning that policies to achieve universal clean energy access could become up to 44% more expensive, depending on how subsidies are allocated. The authors suggest that careful policy design could partially compensate for the additional access costs associated with climate mitigation.

doi: 10.1038/nenergy.2015.10


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