Research press release





今回、James Kossinは、熱帯低気圧の記録を評価して、1949年から2016年までに移動速度が全球的に約10%低下し、一部の陸域で極端な速度低下があったことを明らかにした。北太平洋西部の熱帯低気圧と北大西洋の熱帯低気圧の影響を受ける陸域で移動速度がそれぞれ30%および20%と有意に低下し、またオーストラリア地域の上空でも19%という有意な速度低下があった。Kossinは、熱帯低気圧が、暴風雨の強度の変化と無関係に、特定の地域での滞留時間が長くなり、異常降雨と暴風雨による被害を増加させる可能性があるという結論を示している。

The translation speed of tropical cyclones - the speed at which they move across the planet - has slowed by about 10% over the past 70 years, finds a paper in this week’s Nature. The paper also reports a significant slowdown of tropical cyclones over certain land areas, which consequently leads to an increased potential for storm-related devastation.

Global warming is projected to increase the severity of the strongest tropical cyclones, but warming may bring other, potentially even more serious, effects, such as the general weakening of summertime tropical atmospheric circulation. In addition to circulation changes, anthropogenic warming causes increases in atmospheric water-vapour capacity, which is expected to increase precipitation rates. Rain rates near the centres of tropical cyclones are also expected to increase along with increasing global temperatures.

James Kossin assesses the tropical cyclone record and shows that their translation speed has slowed by about 10% globally from 1949 to 2016, with more extreme slowdowns over some land areas. The author finds a significant slowdown of 30% and 20%, respectively, over land areas affected by western North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones, and a significant 19% slowdown is found over the Australian region. He concludes that even independent of changes in storm severity, tropical cyclones are staying over a given area for longer periods, with an increased potential for extreme rainfall and storm-induced damages.

doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0158-3

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