Climate change: Global CO2 emissions projected to temporarily fall in 2026 (Nature Climate Change)
10 November 2026
Global fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, following average annual growth of 0.8% between 2019 and 2025, according to research published in Nature Climate Change. However, the authors link this decrease to rising oil prices due to the war in Iran and conclude that this is likely to be a temporary decline rather than evidence that emissions have reached a lasting peak.
The transition to cleaner energy continues despite factors including upheaval in global energy markets, shifting government priorities, high capital costs, trade barriers, and growing demand from artificial intelligence and data centres. Renewable power and electric vehicles are increasingly limiting global emissions, but their effects are being countered by rising energy demand, particularly in emerging economies. It therefore remains unclear whether these technologies could outweigh rising demand in 2026 and put global emissions on a sustained downward path.
Corinne Le Quéré and colleagues assessed how electric vehicles, solar power, and wind power countered global emissions growth between 2019 and 2025, and projected their effects through to 2028. They found that 59 countries, including South Africa, Thailand, Colombia, and Mexico, had lower emissions in 2025 than in 2019 while experiencing economic growth. Emissions continued to rise in China and India, but more slowly than previous years, and global emissions increased overall through 2025.
Solar and wind power offset an estimated 4.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2025, including around 2.1 billion tonnes in China, 0.5 billion tonnes each in the United States and European Union, and 0.3 billion tonnes in India. This total global offset is projected to reach 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026, with carbon dioxide emissions projected to decrease by 0.4%. Electric vehicles offset an estimated 190 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, 82% of which was attributed collectively to China, the United States, and European Union, with the total global offset projected to rise to 240 million tonnes in 2026.
Although clean technologies are increasingly limiting emissions growth, the authors attribute the projected 0.4% emissions decline in 2026 mainly to high oil prices following the Iran conflict. The authors note that between 2025 and 2028, electric vehicles, solar power, and wind power are projected to offset an estimated additional 2.0 billion tonnes. However, economic growth and changes in energy use could increase emissions by 2.59 billion tonnes in this same period. Under current trends, electric vehicles, solar power and wind power could offset 1.64 billion tonnes, or 64%, of this increase, rising to 2.0 billion tonnes, or around 80%, under an accelerated-deployment scenario.
The findings suggest that clean technologies are already offsetting much of the growth in emissions, but not enough to support a sustained global decline and faster deployment is needed to reduce emissions. Future trends will also depend on how much of rising energy demand is met by fossil fuels.
- Brief Communication
- Open access
- Published: 10 November 2026
Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R.M., Canadell, J.G. et al. A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02821-8
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