Health: Cervical cancer cases and deaths forecast to rise (Nature Medicine )

Global cervical cancer cases and deaths could rise by 20.2% and 39.3%, respectively, by 2050, according to a modelling study published in Nature Medicine. The findings suggest that the burden of cervical cancer will remain unevenly distributed, with the highest incidence and mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa.

Cervical cancer is largely preventable, with elimination strategies relying on human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, screening, and treatment of cervical disease. However, access to these measures varies widely around the world. In 2023, the age-standardised rate of cervical cancer incidence was more than four times higher and mortality was more than seven times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries.

Natalie Pritchett, Lisa Force, and colleagues analysed cervical cancer incidence, deaths, and health loss across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. They also modelled trends to 2050. The researchers estimated that there were 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths worldwide in 2023. By 2050, annual cases are forecast to rise by 20.2% from 2024 levels to 1.08 million, while deaths are forecast to increase by 39.3% to 522,000. The largest increases are expected in sub-Saharan Africa, where cases could rise by 88.7% and deaths could rise by 95.4%, to an estimated 206,000 deaths in 2050.
The authors report that none of the seven Global Burden of Disease super-regions is forecast to reach the World Health Organization cervical cancer elimination threshold of fewer than four cases per 100,000 people by 2050, if current trends continue. They call for greater access to vaccination, screening, and treatment. However, the estimates are limited by gaps in the availability and quality of data, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The forecasts are based on current trends and do not account for how future HPV vaccination programmes might affect cervical cancer rates.

• Article
• Published: 02 November 2026

GBD 2023 Cervical Cancer Collaborators. Global, regional and national burden of cervical cancer in 1990–2023 with forecasts to 2050: a Global Burden of Disease study. Nat Med (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-026-04729-4
 

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