Ecology: Next 20 years critical to preserving British biodiversity (Nature Communications )
1 April 2026
Reducing emissions and adopting more sustainable land-use practices could be crucial to reducing the number of plant, bird, and butterfly species heading for extinction across Great Britain, according to a modelling study published in Nature Communications. The authors suggest that actions taken during the next 20 years will be critical for limiting future biodiversity losses in Great Britain.
Climate and land use changes in Great Britain have already contributed to species declines and a number of species becoming extinct since 1900. Anticipating changes in biodiversity under future climate conditions is increasingly important for informing effective conservation policies.
Rob Cooke and colleagues used large scale biological and environmental data to model how 1,002 plant, 219 bird, and 56 butterfly species native to Great Britain may be affected by different climate and land-use change scenarios up to 2080. The authors report that the risk of species extinction increased under all scenarios. Under the worst emissions and land-use scenario (which combines high emissions with several factors such as widespread urban expansion, weakened environmental protection regulations, and agricultural intensification), 196 (20%) plant, 31 (14%) bird, and 7 (12%) butterfly species are projected to be at risk of extinction by 2070. For plants and birds, these are equivalent to more than three times the historic extinction rate in Great Britain. Under lower emission and more sustainable scenarios (lower emissions in combination with factors including increased mixed woodland and decreased intensive pasture), 134 (13%) plant, 24 (11%) bird, and 6 (11%) butterfly species may be heading toward extinction by 2070. These represent reduced species losses of 32% (plants), 22% (birds), and 14% (butterflies), compared with the ‘worst’ future scenario.
These findings suggest considerable extinction risks across Great Britan in the future, with plants predicted to be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. The authors note that increasing mixed woodland and decreasing pastureland may be beneficial to species. They conclude that taking decisive action to protect biodiversity within the next 20 years will be essential for mitigating the worst effects of climate and land-use change in Great Britain.
- Article
- Open access
- Published: 31 March 2026
Cooke, R., Burton, V.J., Brown, C. et al. Future scenarios for British biodiversity under climate and land-use change. Nat Commun 17, 2704 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70064-4
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