Climate change: Warming linked to Valencia’s 2024 flooding intensity (Nature Communications)
18 February 2026
Human induced climate change may have intensified the mechanisms behind the 2024 flash floods in Valencia, Spain, according to a modelling study published in Nature Communications. The research highlights the need for adaptation strategies in response to the growing risks of extreme weather events.
In October 2024, the region of Valencia in eastern Spain experienced record-breaking rainfall and extensive flash flooding, resulting in at least 230 fatalities and widespread damage. It has been suggested that human-driven climate change may be associated with an increase in extreme weather conditions, such as severe rainfall events. However, retrospective analysis of the factors leading to such events has proven challenging due to difficulty in distinguishing between human-induced and natural processes.
Carlos Calvo Sancho and colleagues use the physical based attribution method (involving both simulations and direct observations) to assess how human-driven climate change may have affected the 2024 Valencia storm. The authors use simulations of the event at kilometre-scale resolution under present day and pre industrial like conditions to provide a comparison of rainfall intensity, storm dynamics, and moisture content between the two scenarios. The simulations show that present day conditions were associated with a 21% increase in the 6-hour rainfall rate and a 56% increase in the area with total rainfall above 180 mm, compared to the pre-industrial conditions. The analysis also shows increases in both atmospheric and total available water vapour due to higher sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic Ocean. The authors suggest that this increase in water vapour could have promoted changes in storm dynamics, leading to heavier and more widespread rainfall.
The authors note that their modelling is limited to predicting how this specific event would have differed under pre industrial conditions, rather than estimating its probability of occurrence. Further work across broader regions is necessary to refine understanding of how such events evolve in a warming climate.
- Article
- Open access
- Published: 17 February 2026
Calvo-Sancho, C., Díaz-Fernández, J., González-Alemán, J.J. et al. Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood. Nat Commun 17, 1492 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68929-9
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