Climate change: Glacier disappearance projected to peak mid-century (Nature Climate Change)
16 December 2025
The number of glaciers disappearing worldwide each year is projected to sharply increase, peaking at 2,000–4,000 per year around the middle of the century, depending on the level of warming above pre-industrial levels, according to a modelling study published in Nature Climate Change. The authors note that limiting warming to 1.5 °C could more than double the number of glaciers that remain by 2100 compared to a 2.7 °C warming scenario and prevent near-complete loss under 4.0 °C warming.
Glaciers are retreating rapidly across the globe, a trend that has been linked to rising sea-levels. However, the disappearance of individual glaciers also carries cultural, spiritual and economic consequences. Glaciers have a cultural and spiritual meaning in some communities, attract millions of visitors annually, and are an important source of water for downstream regions.
Lander Van Tricht and colleagues analysed more than 200,000 glaciers from a database of glacier outlines observed by satellites using three global glacier models under four warming scenarios: 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.7 °C and 4.0 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. They introduce the concept of ‘peak glacier extinction’ — the year when the largest number of glaciers vanish. Results show that under 1.5 °C warming, glacier disappearance will peak at around 2,000 glaciers per year in 2041. Under 4.0 °C warming, this peak occurs later due to the associated longer and stronger glacier area and volume loss, and could rise to about 4,000 glaciers per year by the mid-2050s. Regions dominated by small glaciers, such as the European Alps and the Subtropical Andes, are projected to experience early peaks with 50% of glaciers potentially disappearing in the next two decades. Areas with larger glaciers, including Greenland and the Antarctic periphery, are projected to experience peak glacier disappearance later in the century.
The findings highlight a turning point in glacier evolution with implications for ecosystems, water resources and cultural heritage. Future research may refine these projections, but the difference between losing a projected 2,000 and 4,000 glaciers annually mid-century depends on climate policy decisions made today, the authors argue.
- Brief Communication
- Open access
- Published: 15 December 2025
Van Tricht, L., Zekollari, H., Huss, M. et al. Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9
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