Research press release


Nature Medicine

Medical research: Overall fatality risk of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, estimated

中国武漢でのCOVID-19による症候性症例の全致命率は、2020年2月29日の時点で1.4%であるとする論文がNature Medicine に掲載される。この数字は、これまで考えられていたよりもかなり低い。


今回、J Wuたちは、論文発表された情報と公式に入手できる情報を使って、以前に報告したこの病気の感染動態モデルを更新し、臨床的重症度の推定値の予備的セットを決定した。この値は、感染が世界的に広がり続けている中で、臨床上、また公衆衛生上の意思決定に役立つと考えられる。2020年2月29日の時点で、武漢の症候性症例の致命率(COVID-19の症状を発症した後で死亡する確率)は1.4%と著者たちは決定した。30~59歳の患者と比較した場合、発症後に死亡する確率は30歳未満では0.6倍、60歳以上では5.1倍だった。また症状を伴う感染のリスクは、年齢とともに上昇し、例えば30〜60歳の成人では年齢が1歳上がるごとに約4%高まることが分かった。これらの知見は、症候性症例の致命率(症状をともなう症例の致命率)は、他の推定値、特に粗死亡率(全感染者数に対する死亡者数の割合)よりもかなり低いことを示している。

The overall symptomatic case fatality risk of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, was 1.4% as of 29 February 2020, according to a paper published in Nature Medicine. This figure is substantially lower than previously thought.

As of 29 February 2020, there were 79,394 confirmed cases of and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China, among which 48,557 and 2,169, respectively, occurred in Wuhan. A key public-health priority during the emergence of a new pathogen is estimating clinical severity. For patients and clinicians, this figure affects triage and diagnostic decision-making, especially in settings without ready access to laboratory testing or when surge capacity has been exceeded in hospitals.

Joseph Wu and colleagues updated their previously published disease transmission dynamics model with published and other publicly available information to determine a preliminary set of clinical-severity estimates, which could help guide clinical and public-health decision-making as the epidemic continues to spread globally. The authors determined that as of 29 February 2020, the symptomatic case-fatality risk — the probability of dying after developing symptoms — of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4%. Compared to those aged 30-59 years, people below 30 years of age and above 59 years of age were 0.6 and 5.1 times more likely to die after developing symptoms, respectively. The authors also found that the risk of symptomatic infection increased with age — for example, about 4% per year among adults 30–60 years of age. These findings suggest the symptomatic case-fatality risk may be substantially lower than other estimates, particularly those based on crude case-fatality risk (proportion of deaths from the total number of cases), have indicated.

doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7


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