Research press release


Nature Medicine

Climate science: Impacts of global heating on US deaths from injuries assessed



M Ezzatiたちは、米国本土各地で38年間(1980〜2017)にわたって集められた死亡数と気温のデータを解析した。そして気温が1.5〜2.0℃上昇するというパリ協定のシナリオを用いて、意図しない傷害(溺水、交通事故、転落)と意図的傷害(暴行、自殺行為)に起因する死亡に、月間気温の平均値からのずれがどのような影響をもたらすかを明らかにした。解析では、年齢層、性別によっても分類が行われた。特に暑い年には、死亡件数が推定で1601件増える可能性があることが分かった。予測されるこの死亡増加数のうち、84%は男性で、年齢は15〜64歳が大半を占めるだろうと考えられている。

A 1.5°C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement, could be responsible for as many as 1,601 additional deaths by injury per year across the contiguous United States, according to a paper published in Nature Medicine.

To date, health consequences related to global temperature variations have been studied largely in the context of the spread of infectious diseases, heart and lung disorders and other chronic diseases. There is limited data on how such variations might affect death from injuries.

Majid Ezzati and colleagues analysed mortality and temperature data collected over 38 years (1980 - 2017) across mainland United States. Using the Paris Agreement scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C increase in temperature, the authors developed a computational model to determine how deviations of monthly temperatures from the average affect deaths attributable to both unintentional (drowning, transport and falls) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries. The analysis was also stratified by age group and sex. The authors found that in an especially warm year, there could be an estimated 1,601 additional deaths. Of these anticipated additional deaths, 84% would occur in men, mostly between the ages of 15 and 64.

doi: 10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y


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