Research press release


Scientific Reports

COVID-19: Over 20.5 million years of life may have been lost due to COVID-19

全世界で2050万年以上の生存年が新型コロナウイルス感染症(COVID-19)によって失われ、死者1人当たり平均16年が失われた可能性があり、COVID-19の影響が深刻な国々では、COVID-19による損失生存年数(YLL;死者の死亡時年齢と平均寿命の差)が、平均的な季節性インフルエンザによるYLLの2~9倍に達する可能性のあることが明らかになった。この研究結果について報告する論文が、Scientific Reports に掲載される。

今回、Héctor Pifarréi Arolas、Mikko Mÿrskylaたちの研究チームは、81か国の127万9866人以上の死者に関するデータと平均寿命に関するデータと国別のCOVID-19死亡数の総数に関する予測を用いて、COVID-19によるYLLの推定値を算出した。



Over 20.5 million years of life may have been lost due to COVID-19 globally, with an average of 16 years lost per death, according to a study published in Scientific Reports. Years of life lost (YLL) – the difference between an individual’s age at death and their life expectancy – due to COVID-19 in heavily affected countries may be two to nine times higher than YLL due to average seasonal influenza.

Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, Mikko Mÿrskyla and colleagues estimated YLL due to COVID-19 using data on over 1,279,866 deaths in 81 countries, as well as life expectancy data and projections for total deaths of COVID-19 by country.

The authors estimate that in total, 20,507,518 years of life may have been lost due to COVID-19 in the 81 countries included in this study – 16 years per individual death. Of the total YLL, 44.9% seems to have occurred in individuals between 55 and 75 years of age, 30.2% in individuals younger than 55, and 25% in those older than 75. In countries for which death counts by gender were available, YLL was 44% higher in men than in women. Compared with other global common causes of death, YLL associated with COVID-19 is two to nine times greater than YLL associated with seasonal flu, and between a quarter and a half as much as the YLL attributable to heart conditions.

The authors caution that the results need to be understood in the context of an ongoing pandemic: they provide a snapshot of the possible impacts of COVID-19 on YLL as of 6 January, 2021. Estimates of YLL may be over- or under-estimates due to the difficulty of accurately recording COVID-19-related deaths.

doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-83040-3


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