Research press release


Nature Climate Change

Impact of the Keystone XL pipeline on greenhouse gas emissions



今回、Peter EricksonとMichael Lazarusは、経済モデルを用いて、このプロジェクトが温室効果ガス排出量に与える影響可能性を定量化した。EricksonとLazarusの解析では、既存の環境影響評価と経済評価の欠陥が指摘され、パイプラインの建設によって、国際石油価格が低下して、石油の消費量が増加するため、このプロジェクトが温室効果ガス排出量に及ぼす影響全体が、従来の想定の4倍になることが明らかになった。また、これと似たモデルを適用して、他の多くの化石燃料の抽出・供給インフラに対する投資計画が温室効果ガス排出量に及ぼす影響を評価できる可能性もある、とEricksonとLazarusは指摘している。

The proposed Keystone XL pipeline to connect Canadian oil sands with US refineries and ports could have a substantially larger impact on greenhouse gas emissions than previously assumed, suggests a study published online this week in Nature Climate Change. As well as being broadly relevant to the climate policy research community, these findings could help to inform the debate over whether the pipeline should be built.

The Keystone XL pipeline project has attracted much controversy, including criticism from environmentalists. US President Barack Obama has said that he would only approve the pipeline if it does not significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution.

Using an economic model, Peter Erickson and Michael Lazarus quantified the project’s potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Their analysis points to a gap in existing environmental and economic assessments. They show that the pipeline’s construction could lower global oil prices, increasing consumption and quadrupling the total greenhouse gas impact of the project. They note that similar models could also be applied to assess the impact of emissions from numerous other pending investments in fossil fuel extraction and supply infrastructure.

doi: 10.1038/nclimate2335


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