Research press release


Nature Climate Change

Atmospheric stagnation


今回、Daniel Hortonたちは、さまざまな全球気候モデルに大気停滞指標を当てはめて、今後の大気停滞事象について調べた。Hortonたちは、高排出シナリオを用いて、大気停滞事象の頻度と持続期間の変化を検討した。その結果、現在の世界人口の55%以上について、大気停滞が増加し、熱帯域と亜熱帯域の大多数で、大気停滞が年40日増加するという予測を示した。


Climate change is expected to increase atmospheric stagnation events through changes in circulation and the hydrological cycle, reports a paper published online this week in Nature Climate Change. Atmospheric stagnation, in which an air mass remains over an area for an extended period, can have serious health implications, such as cardiovascular disease and respiratory problems, due to increased pollution exposure.

Daniel Horton and colleagues investigate future stagnation events by applying an air stagnation index to a collection of global climate models. Using a high-emissions scenario, the authors examine changes in the frequency and duration of events. They project an increase in stagnation occurring over 55% of the current global population, with increases of up to 40 additional days a year over the majority of the tropics and subtropics.

India, Mexico and the western US are most at risk of health impacts due to an increase in stagnation events occurring in areas with large populations. These results suggest that climate change means there will need to be better pollution management to ensure air-quality standards are met.

doi: 10.1038/nclimate2272


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