Research press release


Nature Climate Change

Predictable climate disease linkages


比較的ゆっくりとした海面水温の変化が遠隔地の地域的な気候変動に及ぼす影響が明らかになり、多くの環境要因の予測が有望視されている。今回、M Pascualたちは、全球大気海洋結合モデルを用いた実験によって裏づけられた観測による解析を通じて、北西インドでのモンスーンに伴う降水とマラリア流行に対する南大西洋の海面水温の影響を明らかにした。今後の数十年間は、気候変動によって、この2つの離れた地域間の関係がさらに顕著なものとなる可能性があるとPascualたちは考えている。


Sea surface temperatures in the tropical South Atlantic Ocean can act as a dominant driver of rainfall variability and outbreaks of malaria in arid northwestern India. This climatic link, reported online this week in Nature Climate Change, could provide the basis for seasonal prediction of malaria incidence in the region.

The influence of relatively slow changes in sea surface temperature on regional climate variability at distant locations offers the promise of prediction for many environmental factors. Mercedes Pascual and colleagues identified - through observational analysis supported by coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling experiments - the influence of South Atlantic sea surface temperatures on both monsoon rainfall and malaria epidemics in northwest India. They believe that this relationship between two distant locations may become more prominent over the coming decades due to climate change.

These findings could be used to produce early warnings of anomalous rainfall patterns conducive to malaria epidemics four months in advance of their occurrence - a longer lead time than rainfall monitoring can provide - potentially offering more time for public health interventions.

doi: 10.1038/nclimate1834


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