Research press release


Nature Climate Change

Food: Climate change increases risk to crops from plant pathogens

気候変動は、高緯度地域での作物収量の増加につながる可能性があるが、この増収分が、病原体による作物感染のリスク増加によって相殺される可能性があると考えられることを報告する論文が、Nature Climate Change に掲載される。


今回、Daniel Bebberたちは、21世紀末までの将来的な気候シナリオの下で、主要な商用作物(トウモロコシ、コムギ、ダイズ、イネの4種)と温帯作物と熱帯作物(計8種)の生産量をモデル化した。その結果、全体として、これらの作物の大部分は、北米とユーラシアの一部などの高緯度地域で収量が増加すると予測された。一方で、高緯度地域では、植物病原体の菌類と(菌類様)卵菌類(計80種)による温度依存性感染リスクが増加することも示唆された。また、米国、ヨーロッパ、中国などの一部の地域では、病原体群集内の種構成がさらに大きく変化する可能性がある。


Climate change could lead to greater crop yields at high latitudes, although these gains may be offset by an increased risk of crop infection by pathogens, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change.

Food security is a continuous concern as the global population expands, arable land is reduced and the threat of climate change increases. Climate change-induced losses to global crop production can occur either directly, for example as a result of drought, or indirectly, including via the impact of plant pathogens. Although plant pathogens represent a major threat to crop production, little is known about how climate change will impact their distribution and abundance.

Daniel Bebber and colleagues model the production of four major commodity crops (maize, wheat, soybean and rice), as well as eight additional temperate and tropical crops, under future climate scenarios over the twenty-first century. The authors predict that, overall, the yield of most of these crops will increase at high latitudes, such as in North America and parts of Eurasia. However, they also suggest that temperature-dependent infection risk from 80 fungal and oomycete (fungi-like) plant pathogens will increase at high latitudes. Major shifts in species composition within pathogen communities may additionally occur in some regions, such as the United States, Europe and China.

The authors conclude that potential increases in pathogen burden highlight a potential major risk to food security, reinforcing the need for careful crop management.

doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01104-8


メールマガジンリストの「Nature 関連誌今週のハイライト」にチェックをいれていただきますと、毎週各ジャーナルからの最新の「注目のハイライト」をまとめて皆様にお届けいたします。