Research press release


Nature Climate Change

CO2 emissions may affect human nutrition


大気中の二酸化炭素濃度は、思い切った気候変動緩和策が取られない限り、今後30~80年間に550 ppmを超えてしまうことが予想されている。二酸化炭素濃度がこのような値まで上昇すると、多くの主要作物に含まれる鉄、タンパク質、亜鉛の量が3~17%減少すると推定されている。このような食物栄養素の減少は、健康転帰の悪化につながる可能性がある。

今回、Matthew SmithとSamuel Myersは、大気中二酸化炭素濃度の上昇が151カ国の国民の鉄分、タンパク質、亜鉛分の摂取量の充足性に及ぼす影響を、225種の食物についての年齢別・性別の入手可能性モデルを使って調べた。



Human nutrition may be threatened in many parts of the world by future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, reports a paper published online this week in Nature Climate Change.

Unless we undertake drastic mitigation efforts, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to exceed 550 ppm in the next 30-80 years. This increase is expected to reduce the iron, protein and zinc content of many staple crops by 3-17%. These diminished dietary nutrients could lead to negative health outcomes.

Matthew Smith and Samuel Myers examine the impact of elevated CO2 levels on iron, protein and zinc sufficiency among the populations of 151 countries using an age- and sex-stratified model of availability for 225 different foods.

The authors find that increased CO2 concentrations could cause an additional 175 million people to be zinc deficient and 122 million to be protein deficient by 2050. Furthermore, 1.4 billion women of childbearing age and children under 5 are currently living in countries with over 20% anaemia prevalence and stand to lose over 4% of their dietary iron intake.

Without a perceptible increase in hunger to motivate efforts to compensate these changes, the prevalence and severity of nutritional deficiency could be increased across the globe. Regions where this will be of particular concern include Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0253-3


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