Research press release


Nature Climate Change

Financial assets at risk from climate change



今回、Simon Dietzたちは、全世界の経済成長と世界の金融資産の価値に対する気候変動の影響をモデル化した。このモデルによれば、これまで同様の経済活動が続いた場合には、金融資産の現在の市場価格の1.8%が失われる可能性のあることが分かった。これは、約2.5兆米ドル(約275兆円)または化石燃料会社の株式の市場価格の総額の50%に相当する。一方、Dietzたちは、気候変動が予想以上に悪化すれば、最大25兆米ドル(約2750兆円)の資産が失われる可能性があるという見解も示している。

また、同時掲載のNews & Views記事で、Sabine Fuss は「そうした多大な損失は、たとえ発生確率が低くても、極めて破壊的な影響を持つことは明白であるため、投資家は、気候変動のリスクを真剣に受け止めるべきだ」と述べている。

Between $2.5 trillion and $24.2 trillion of global financial assets could be at risk due to climate change, reports a new study published online in Nature Climate Change. The study finds that implementing policies to prevent temperatures rising by more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels substantially reduces this risk.

Previous research has shown that enacting stringent climate policies, which limit emissions and pollution, may ‘strand’ some assets that contribute to climate change, such as oil, coal and gas reserves, because the climate policies dictate that the assets cannot be used, so the assets lose value. Climate change can directly destroy capital assets, for example through damage from extreme weather events, or it can reduce the productivity of these assets, thereby reducing their value. However, no studies have yet estimated the direct impact of climate change on the value of financial assets themselves.

Simon Dietz and colleagues modelled the impact of climate change on global economic growth and the value of global financial assets. They find that, if a business-as-usual emissions path is maintained, 1.8% of the present market value of financial assets is at risk, which is equivalent to about $2.5 trillion dollars or half of the estimated current total stock market value of fossil-fuel companies. However, the authors find that if climate change is worse than expected, up to $25 trillion of assets could be at risk.

In an accompanying News & Views article, Sabine Fuss writes: “clearly, such massive losses, even at a lower probability of occurring, would be hugely disruptive, so investors should be taking climate risks seriously.”

doi: 10.1038/nclimate2972

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