Research press release


Nature Climate Change

Climate change adaptation spending might protect capital, not people



今回、Lucien Georgesonたちは、世界の10か所のメガシティー(人口300万人超、GDPランキングの上位25都市のいずれか、または両方を満たす都市)における気候変動適応策(例えば、排水系統の改善、護岸対策、インフラの回復力強化)への支出額を分析した。その結果分かったのは、2014/2015年に全世界で気候変動適応策に2230億ポンド(約33兆5000億円、世界のGDPの0.38%に相当)が支出され、先進国の都市での支出額が最も多いことだ。気候変動の影響を最も受けやすい貧困国の都市、例えば、アディスアベバ(エチオピア)、ラゴス(ナイジェリア)、ジャカルタ(インドネシア)での支出額はかなり少なかった。総額で最も多かったのがニューヨーク(米国)で、2014/2015年に約16億ポンド(約2400億円)の支出があり、1人当たりの支出額が最も多かったのがパリ(フランス)だった(約397.47ポンド、約59,621円)。これに対して、アディスアベバは、総額と1人当たりの支出額のいずれも最も少なく、それぞれ約1500万ポンド(約23億円)と4.71ポンド(約707円)だった。また、気候変動適応策への支出額の対GDP比は、先進国の都市が約0.22%で、開発途上国ではわずか約0.15%だった。(例外は中国の北京で、0.33%と最も高かった。)以上の証拠を総合すると、現在の気候変動適応策への支出が人々ではなく、資本を守るために行われていることが示唆されている、とGeorgesonたちは考えている。


Developed cities are spending a much larger percentage of their GDP than poorer cities each year on measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change, reports a paper published online this week in Nature Climate Change. The study suggests that spending is more strongly linked with protecting capital than helping the world’s most vulnerable people to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

The majority of the world’s population now lives in cities, with major urban centres increasingly at risk from extreme weather, water scarcity and energy shortages as a consequence of climate change.

Lucien Georgeson and colleagues analysed the amount that ten megacities (cities with a population greater than three million, or GDP ranking amongst the top 25 of cities, or both) across the globe spent on climate adaptation measures, such as better drainage systems, coastal defences and more resilient infrastructure. They found that £223 billion (0.38% of global GDP) was spent on climate adaptation worldwide in 2014/15, with the largest share of this spent in developed cities. Poorer and more vulnerable cities, such as Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Lagos (Nigeria) and Jakarta (Indonesia), spent much less. New York (USA) spent the most overall (around £1.6 billion in 2014/15), Paris (France) spent the most per person (around £397.47), whereas Addis Ababa spent both the least overall (around £15 million) and least per person (£4.71). They find that developed cities spend about 0.22% of their GDP on climate change adaptation, whereas the developing cities spend only about 0.15% (the exception is Beijing, which spends the most at 0.33%). The authors note that, taken together, this evidence seems to suggest that current adaptation spending tracks capital to be protected rather than people.

Spending on adaptation remains a small part of the global economy, but it is likely to rise. The authors call for international institutions to ensure that adequate funding is available to cities in developing and emerging economies, which are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

doi: 10.1038/nclimate2944


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