Forecasting failure
Nature Climate Change
2013년7월22일
The accuracy of computer simulations in reproducing crop failure events that have occurred across the globe suggests that seasonal forecasts can be useful for monitoring global food production, reports a paper published in Nature Climate Change this week.
Toshichika Iizumi and colleagues linked ensemble seasonal climate forecasts with statistical crop models to assess how well the models reproduce crop failures for the major global crops: wheat, soybean, maize and rice. They found that yield loss over a substantial proportion (26-33%) of the harvested area was predictable if climatic forecasts were sufficiently accurate. However, the reliability of yield estimates varied significantly by crop, with rice and wheat yields being the most predictable.
Although the proportion of harvest area that was reliably predicted may not seem high, there is sufficient predictability of crop failure to aid in the monitoring of global food production and provide insight into potential price volatility. Such information can also support the adaptation of food systems to climatic extremes.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate1945
리서치 하이라이트
-
8월4일
Environment: Extreme flooding and drought make risk management difficultNature
-
8월3일
Environment: Salt may inhibit lightning in sea stormsNature Communications
-
7월29일
Environment: Costs of amphibian and reptile invasions exceeded US$ 17 billion between 1986 and 2020Scientific Reports
-
7월27일
Environment: Plastic pollution encourages bacterial growth in lakesNature Communications
-
7월27일
Ecology: Using fallow land to grow vanilla increases biodiversityNature Communications
-
7월26일
Palaeontology: Attenborough fossil provides insights into jellyfish familyNature Ecology & Evolution
