Feasibility of achieving climate targets
Nature Climate Change
2011년10월24일
The internationally agreed goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2℃ is still achievable, but may be slipping out of reach, according to research published online in Nature Climate Change this week.
At the United Nations climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, countries recognized that global average temperature rise should be limited to 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, decision-makers need to know how much global emissions need to be cut to keep temperatures below the 2℃ threshold, and whether it is technically and economically feasible to make such cuts.
In the most comprehensive assessment of these factors so far, which extends and confirms earlier work by the United Nations Environment Programme, Joeri Rogelj and colleagues re-analyse ‘feasible’ emission scenarios from the literature to see whether they limit warming to ‘safe’ levels. They find that to have a ‘likely’ (greater than 66%) chance of keeping temperature rise below 2℃, global emissions will probably need to peak before 2020, fall to about 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020, then keep falling — a pathway that will be very challenging to achieve.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate1258
리서치 하이라이트
-
3월4일
Environment: Reservoirs account for more than half of water storage variabilityNature
-
3월2일
Evolution: Neanderthals may have heard just like usNature Ecology & Evolution
-
3월2일
Geoscience: Earth’s atmosphere may return to low-levels of oxygen in one billion yearsNature Geoscience
-
2월26일
Environment: Shifting from small to medium plastic bottles could reduce PET wasteScientific Reports
-
2월24일
Environment: European forests more vulnerable to multiple threats as climate warmsNature Communications
-
2월11일
Environment: Global CFC-11 emissions in declineNature
