An analysis of the reliability of climate model predictions suggests a higher probability of drying occurring in the Amazon basin than is currently forecast, reports a study in Nature Communications. Water resource management decisions are usually based on the consensus formed by many climate models, a process which has uncertainties. These new findings could therefore aid in the development of more accurate assessments in the future for better informed policies and adaptations.

Hideo Shiogama and colleagues apply a statistical model and identify global-scale metrics to estimate uncertainties in the water resource predictions for South America. Their results suggest that, unlike the increased wetting predicted by ensemble models, there is a higher probability of drying occurring in the Amazon basin.