Seasonal forecast skill

Seasonal forecasts are improved by consideration of upper atmospheric data, reports a study published online this week in Nature Geoscience. The findings suggest that forecasts of socio-economically relevant climate variables can be improved.

Michael Sigmond and colleagues assessed the forecast skill of model runs that were started at the time of a sudden stratospheric warming event. They report that forecasts of atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperature and precipitation were improved in some regions when model runs were started during these upper atmospheric events.

doi:10.1038/ngeo1698

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