The temperature increases predicted in the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 1990 seem to be accurate halfway through the forecast period, reports a paper published in Nature Climate Change this week.
In 1990 the first IPCC assessment report was published, forecasting trends in global mean temperature from 1990 to 2030. David Frame and Daithi Stone now highlight that, at the mid-point, the predictions seem to be upheld, even though a number of important external forcings were not included. They conclude that that the IPCC predictions succeeded because greenhouse-gas-induced warming overwhelmed the other forcings over the 20-year timescale.
The authors suggest that the quality of the first consensus climate prediction can be built on with improved knowledge of the climate system, to extended climate predictions to regional scales.
Climate change: Urban greening can help reduce accelerated surface warming in citiesCommunications Earth & Environment
Ecology: Drought has life-long consequences for red kitesNature Communications
Geoscience: Diamond from the deep reveals a water-rich environmentNature Geoscience
Environment: Human contribution to Middle East’s poor air quality underestimatedCommunications Earth & Environment
Ecology: Tree species diversity enhances forest drought resistanceNature Geoscience
Planetary science: Mars InSight lander records impact of meteoroidsNature Geoscience